A comprehensive framework for risk probability assessment of landfill fire incidents using fuzzy fault tree analysis

Landfill fire is the most frequent type of incident in waste management complexes. This paper presents a new framework for risk probability evaluation major fires landfills using fuzzy fault tree analysis. The starts with construction landfill comprised 38 basic and 22 intermediate events corresponding faults under managerial, executive, human, environmental conditions. Fault quantitative analysis carried out through combination set theory experts' judgements to overcome lack data. Two sensitivity approaches are used identify critical paths tree. proposed demonstrated by its application real-world case Iran. results show "fire incident" 5.5 %, whereas occurrence" stands 25 % probability, higher than "lack preparation controlling fire" 21.60 probability. In addition, "Waste’s uncontrolled dumping" recognised as highest event failure 6 importance degree 24 %. "Executive fault" also found fault’s reveal impact experts’ weights, especially related human or faults. These can give decision-makers profound insight into providing effective intervention strategies minimising incidents.